TechAgility

So how bad can it get? I’d suggest you hold on to your seats and buckle up, things could get bumpy from here in? Do check out Jim Rogers comments at the bottom of the post.

“This is worse than the S&L crisis. This is the first time – this is the worst credit bubble we’ve ever had in American history. No – never in American history have people been able to buy a house with no money down…never. That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”

Sure as an investor in residential property I have been able to buy a House with no money down, but only by providing additional security from another investment property, so this is an entirely new issue and much more serious. So now that the US has woken up to the fact that Credit was way too easy then how long will it be (or how far south with the Dow Jones go?) before it get’s better?

Interestingly enough we have a Federal Election here in Australia this weekend and with John Howard banging on about how well the Liberals have been looking after the economy over the last 11 years if the US hadn’t had a holiday today and the NYSE was open with the Dow Jones going further south then that would have probably paid into his hands? But as it is it would appear the Polls are sharply divided on whether it will be a photo finish or a landslide…

Emergency US Interest Rate Cut Rumoured as Freddie Mac Posts $5b Loss

Posted by Bill Bonner on Nov 22nd, 2007

Poor Freddie (NYSE:FRE). The federally-chartered lender announced a loss of nearly US$5 billion. You’d think it had lit up a cigarette in a sushi joint. Suddenly, everyone was jumping all over it. Investors spanked the company…the shares fell 30% after the firm announced a cut of as much as 50% in the dividend. Sister Fannie (NYSE:FNM) didn’t get away either. Her shares went down 22%.

Meanwhile, the US dollar went down again – hitting another record low against the euro. Years ago, we guessed it would drop to US$1.50 per euro. Today, it is at US$1.48.

Yesterday, a rumour made the rounds…that the Fed was getting ready for an emergency cut. “The Fed will keep its options open,” said Neil Mellor of the Bank of New York Mellon. But an emergency cut seems unlikely. Instead, the futures market is giving a 90% probability of another cut at the Fed’s regular meeting on December 11th.

….

“We aren’t happy about this,” he told a conference call. Then, he went on to describe what it was he wasn’t happy about. As the Financial Times put it:

“Mr. Styron blamed the meltdown in the US mortgage market and the attendant decline in the value of mortgage-related shares.”

Who could have seen that coming, he seemed to ask?

….

Not the rating agencies. Last month, Fitch said it was caught off guard by “the unprecedented reversal in home prices”. What’s the matter with these people? What’s unprecedented about house prices going down? Funny how no one took these guys aside and whispered in their ear:

“Pssst…markets go up AND down. And by the way, when you lend out money recklessly…you gotta expect trouble.”

Apparently, no one said a thing. It is as if these guys had come to Wall Street on the back of a turnip truck…and signed up for work the next day.

….

And this from our old friend Jim Rogers:

“This is worse than the S&L crisis. This is the first time – this is the worst credit bubble we’ve ever had in American history. No – never in American history have people been able to buy a house with no money down…never. That’s never happened anytime in the world. So, we have the worst credit bubble. It’s going to take a long time to work its way out. You don’t cure a bubble in five or six months… It takes five or six years.”

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

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Emergency US Interest Rate Cut Rumoured as Freddie Mac Posts $5b Loss

written by dcaddick