95 views
Sep 25

Even though we might work in IT we cannot neglect the business, after all it’s the business requirements that we strive to fulfill (isn’t it? ;-)

I strongly believe we need to be mindful of what’s going on in the wider world from a Financial context so that we can understand (sometimes even before the business does?) why projects need to be revised or canceled?

The reality is that many other countries around the world have traditionally used the USD as a basis for their own currency, but with things shaping up the way they are the Fed’s changes are not relevant to other global and local economies and so as a matter of course they will start considering to break these traditional links and this may have further consequences on the perceived value and strength of the USD

Exciting times indeed?

Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright

From the Telegraph.co.uk

Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signaling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.

  • China threatens ‘nuclear option’ of dollar sales
  • Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Brace yourself for the insolvency crunch
  • The credit crisis in full

    Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright

    Ben Bernanke has placed the dollar in a dangerous situation, say analysts

    "This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.

    "Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.

    The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.

    As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilizing its own economy.

    The Fed’s dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just under $1.40.

    There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.

    The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit - expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.

  • written by dcaddick

    89 views
    Sep 25

    Welcome to the cold shower? it will be very interesting how this space shapes up as things progress in the new year with Citrix and Microsoft joining the fray?

    Deeper look at VMware’s results spooks investors

    Posted by: Aaron Pressman on September 18

    When software hotshot and EMC (Symbol: EMC) spin-off VMware (VMW) went public last month at $29, demand from investors was feverish and the shares shot up 76% on their first day of trading. Since then, they’ve gained even more, peaking at $82.75 in intraday trading last week. VMware’s final IPO filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission included preliminary results for the second quarter that looked pretty impressive including a 125% leap in net income. Yesterday, the company followed up with a routine, audited second quarter filing that repeated the same happy results. And yet VMware’s shares dropped over $4 during the day and stand at $73.19 today, down 12% from the high a week ago.

    So here’s a mystery to ponder for the next hour as you await the Fed’s big announcement: if VMware already announced its second quarter results, what in its 10-Q filing yesterday caused the sell-off? I don’t think you have to look very far. Last month, VMware released its second quarter revenue, operating income and net income. There was no detail provided about expenses and cash flow. Yesterday’s filing included all the details and suddenly things look a little less great.

    We already knew that the company’s revenue jumped 90%, operating income 81%, and net income 125%. Now we also see that operating cash flow increased only 43% to $85.6 million. And the rate of growth in some expense lines challenged the rates of growth of the previously revealed good stuff. Research and development expenses shot up 120% to $72 million, sales and marketing costs rose 83% to $99 million and general and administrative expenses climbed 124% to $31 million. At the bottom, the percentage of revenue eaten up by these operating expenses rose 1 percentage point to 68% from 67% a year earlier. Excluding stock-based compensation, an expense that tech companies like VMware prefer to back out, expense growth looks even worse, increasing by more than 2.5 percentage points of revenue. This is a trend that was visible back in the original IPO filing, as I noted in April. With looming competition from Microsoft (MSFT), Citrix (CTXS) and other big fish, anybody think VMware’s expenses are going to start sinking anytime soon?

    One other worrisome piece of the VMware puzzle comes from the market’s valuation of EMC, which still owns 87% of VMware shares. That stake is worth over $20 billion today, or about half of the market’s valuation of EMC itself. Yet EMC shares have barely budged since VMware went public, rising from $18.34 on August 14 to $18.90 today, or a 3% increase. How can a company’s biggest asset almost triple in value while the market yawns? The answer lies in the shortage of VMware shares available to the market. Just like a zillion dot com bombs back in the day, there aren’t enough shares of VMware’s total available to investors yet. The market isn’t saying that EMC, a long-established company, is undervalued. It’s saying that VMware is overvalued. As more shares hit the market over the next year, that shortage will evaporate and so too will the VMware’s p/e ratio of 231.

    more at source…

    written by dcaddick